Lech Poznan arrive into this fixture in strong form, having won three of their last five at home while sitting top of the Ekstraklasa table. Their home record this season has been remarkably open — a BTTS rate of 88% and over 2.5 goals in 88% of home games dwarfs the league average of 57% and 51% respectively, averaging 2.3 scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Goals feel almost inevitable when they host.

Wisla Plock come in on a three-game losing run away from home, and while they have kept it tight on the road — averaging 1.2 conceded — they have failed to keep a single clean sheet in away fixtures this season. Their away BTTS sits at 69%, still above the league norm, suggesting they contribute to games even when results go against them.

The limited H2H sample, just one meeting ending in a draw, tells us little, but the data suggests this should be a high-scoring affair heavily tilted toward the hosts. This looks like better value than it might appear on the surface.