Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow — Ekstraklasa forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lech Poznan
55%
Draw
23%
Wisla Krakow
23%
Expected goals
2.16–1.14
Lech Poznan · Wisla Krakow
Lech Poznan win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.5%), 2–0 (7.7%), 2–1 (7.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 25% of outcomes; the other 75% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Lech Poznan win is 2–0 (7.7%).
Lech Poznan score at least twice in 60%; Wisla Krakow in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Wisla Krakow goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lech Poznan goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| Market reference | 55% | 23% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 23% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 1.76 |
| Draw | 4.04 |
| Wisla Krakow | 4.10 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Lech Poznan
| 25 Jul | H | vs Cracovia | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Piast Gliwice | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Widzew Lodz | 3–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Jagiellonia | 2–1 | W |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lech Poznan (Home · 6 matches) | Wisla Krakow (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | — |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | — |
Home stats use Lech Poznan's home record; away stats use Wisla Krakow's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.