Jagiellonia come into this in patchy form, picking up just one win from their last five, but their home record this season tells a more compelling story. They average 2.0 goals scored per home game and have seen both teams score in 73% of those fixtures, well above the Ekstraklasa average of 58%. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of their home games, dwarfing the league norm of 52%, which signals this ground tends to produce open, high-scoring affairs.

Pogon arrive in poor shape, with four losses in their last five and a modest away record — just 0.9 goals scored per away game and a clean sheet rate of 13%. Their away BTTS of 53% and O2.5 of 40% suggest they tend to keep things tight on the road, though they also concede 1.6 per game away from home.

The table gap is significant, and Pogon's travel form is weak. This looks more lopsided than a mid-table clash might suggest, with the hosts the clear value side.