Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Krakow — Ekstraklasa forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Gornik Zabrze
62%
Draw
21%
Wieczysta Krakow
17%
Expected goals
2.15–1.00
Gornik Zabrze · Wieczysta Krakow
Gornik Zabrze win 62% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.1%), 2–0 (9.7%), 2–1 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Gornik Zabrze win is 2–0 (9.7%).
Gornik Zabrze score at least twice in 63%; Wieczysta Krakow in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Wieczysta Krakow goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Gornik Zabrze goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 60% | 20% | 19% |
| Market reference | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 62% | 21% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze | 1.56 |
| Draw | 4.30 |
| Wieczysta Krakow | 5.38 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Gornik Zabrze
| 25 Jul | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs GKS Katowice | 2–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
Wieczysta Krakow
| 24 Jul | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Piast Gliwice | 4–3 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 2–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Wisla | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gornik Zabrze (Home · 5 matches) | Wieczysta Krakow (Away · 8 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 62.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 62.5% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Gornik Zabrze's home record; away stats use Wieczysta Krakow's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.