GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Krakow — Ekstraklasa forecast, Monday, 12 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
GKS Katowice
47%
Draw
24%
Wieczysta Krakow
29%
Expected goals
1.81–1.31
GKS Katowice · Wieczysta Krakow
GKS Katowice win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.0%), 2–1 (8.3%), 1–2 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely GKS Katowice win is 2–1 (8.3%).
GKS Katowice score at least twice in 53%; Wieczysta Krakow in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Wieczysta Krakow goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: GKS Katowice goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Market reference | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 24% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| GKS Katowice | 2.05 |
| Draw | 3.89 |
| Wieczysta Krakow | 3.20 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Oct · 05:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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GKS Katowice
| 26 Jul | A | vs Wisla | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Motor Lublin | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla Plock | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Gornik Zabrze | 3–2 | W |
Wieczysta Krakow
| 24 Jul | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Piast Gliwice | 4–3 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 2–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Wisla | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | GKS Katowice (Home · 3 matches) | Wieczysta Krakow (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.67 | 3.83 |
Home stats use GKS Katowice's home record; away stats use Wieczysta Krakow's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.