Horsens vs AGF — Danish Superliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Horsens
22%
Draw
25%
result
AGF
53%
top pick
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an AGF win. Expected goals 1.11–1.82 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–2 (9.6%), 0–2 (8.8%). It finished 2–2.
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Horsens
| 26 Jul | H | vs FC Nordsjaelland | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Midtjylland | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Brondby | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Odense | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lyngby | 2–1 | W |
AGF
| 25 Jul | H | vs Brondby | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Lyngby | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Viborg | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Odense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Randers | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Horsens (Home · 7 matches) | AGF (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 71.4% | 71.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.1% | 57.1% |
| Clean sheet | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.14 | 2.86 |
Home stats use Horsens's home record; away stats use AGF's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.