AGF vs Horsens — Danish Superliga forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
AGF
61%
Draw
21%
Horsens
18%
Expected goals
2.08–1.10
AGF · Horsens
AGF win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.8%), 1–1 (9.8%), 2–0 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
AGF score at least twice in 62%; Horsens in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Horsens goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AGF goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Market reference | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 61% | 21% | 18% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| AGF | 1.58 |
| Draw | 4.39 |
| Horsens | 5.15 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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AGF
| 25 Jul | H | vs Brondby | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Lyngby | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Viborg | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Odense | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Randers | 1–2 | L |
Horsens
| 26 Jul | H | vs FC Nordsjaelland | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Midtjylland | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Brondby | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Odense | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lyngby | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 20 Sept 26 | HorsensvsAarhus | 2 – 2 |
AGF: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | AGF (Home · 6 matches) | Horsens (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 4.20 |
Home stats use AGF's home record; away stats use Horsens's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.