Wolfsburg vs Osnabruck — 2. Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Wolfsburg
64%
Draw
19%
Osnabruck
17%
Expected goals
2.20–1.14
Wolfsburg · Osnabruck
Wolfsburg win 64% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (11.4%), 2–0 (9.0%), 1–1 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Wolfsburg score at least twice in 66%; Osnabruck in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Osnabruck goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: Wolfsburg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Market reference | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 64% | 19% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Wolfsburg | 1.51 |
| Draw | 4.84 |
| Osnabruck | 5.41 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Wolfsburg
| 8 Aug | H | vs Kaiserslautern | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Hannover | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Karlsruhe | 5–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Cottbus | 4–4 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs St Pauli | 0–1 | L |
Osnabruck
| 8 Aug | A | vs Heidenheim | 3–4 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Magdeburg | 0–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Bochum | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Braunschweig | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Hertha | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Wolfsburg (Home · 4 matches) | Osnabruck (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.50 | 3.25 |
Home stats use Wolfsburg's home record; away stats use Osnabruck's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.