St Pauli vs Wolfsburg — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 127.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
FC St. Pauli
43%
pick · result
Draw
26%
VfL Wolfsburg
32%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a FC St. Pauli win 42.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a FC St. Pauli win. Expected goals 1.65–1.40 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.8%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–2 (7.6%). It finished 1–0.
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St Pauli
| 9 Aug | H | vs Greuther Furth | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Kaiserslautern | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Bielefeld | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Wolfsburg | 1–0 | W |
Wolfsburg
| 8 Aug | H | vs Kaiserslautern | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Hannover | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Karlsruhe | 5–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Cottbus | 4–4 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs St Pauli | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Pauli (Home · 5 matches) | Wolfsburg (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 3.80 |
Home stats use St Pauli's home record; away stats use Wolfsburg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.