Cottbus vs St Pauli — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 56.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Cottbus
44%
top pick
Draw
24%
result
FC St. Pauli
32%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 24.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Cottbus win. Expected goals 1.79–1.51 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.7%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–2 (7.5%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Cottbus
| 9 Aug | H | vs Hannover | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Bielefeld | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Greuther Furth | 3–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Wolfsburg | 4–4 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Karlsruhe | 3–0 | W |
St Pauli
| 9 Aug | H | vs Greuther Furth | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Kaiserslautern | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Bielefeld | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Wolfsburg | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cottbus (Home · 5 matches) | St Pauli (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Cottbus's home record; away stats use St Pauli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.