Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Mainz 05
54%
top pick
Draw
23%
Eintracht Frankfurt
23%
result
Final score
1–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Eintracht Frankfurt win 22.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Mainz 05 win. Expected goals 1.84–1.23 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (11.5%), 1–1 (10.7%), 1–0 (8.8%). It finished 1–3.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Mainz 05
| 29 Aug | H | vs Paderborn | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Hamburg | 5–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–4 | L |
Eintracht Frankfurt
| 29 Aug | A | vs Union Berlin | 3–3 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Augsburg | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Mainz 05 | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Freiburg | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0–6 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mainz 05 (Home · 4 matches) | Eintracht Frankfurt (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 4.25 |
Home stats use Mainz 05's home record; away stats use Eintracht Frankfurt's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.