Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt — Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Borussia Dortmund
66%
Draw
18%
Eintracht Frankfurt
16%
Expected goals
2.53–1.14
Borussia Dortmund · Eintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Dortmund win 66% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (8.8%), 2–0 (8.1%), 1–1 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 25% of outcomes; the other 75% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Borussia Dortmund score at least twice in 71%; Eintracht Frankfurt in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Eintracht Frankfurt goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Borussia Dortmund goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Market reference | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| Metis Forecast | 66% | 18% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.48 |
| Draw | 5.22 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 5.91 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Borussia Dortmund
| 29 Aug | H | vs Hamburg | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Paderborn | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs VfB Stuttgart | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | H | vs Werder Bremen | 2–2 | D |
Eintracht Frankfurt
| 29 Aug | A | vs Union Berlin | 3–3 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Augsburg | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Mainz 05 | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Freiburg | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0–6 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Borussia Dortmund (Home · 3 matches) | Eintracht Frankfurt (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 5.33 |
Home stats use Borussia Dortmund's home record; away stats use Eintracht Frankfurt's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.