Standard Liege vs Kortrijk — Belgian Pro League forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Standard Liege
56%
Draw
23%
Kortrijk
21%
Expected goals
1.83–1.02
Standard Liege · Kortrijk
Standard Liege win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.1%), 2–0 (9.8%), 1–0 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Standard Liege win is 2–0 (9.8%).
Standard Liege score at least twice in 54%; Kortrijk in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Kortrijk goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Standard Liege goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 24% | 17% |
| Market reference | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 56% | 23% | 21% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Standard Liege | 1.74 |
| Draw | 3.99 |
| Kortrijk | 4.40 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Standard Liege
| 8 Aug | H | vs Cercle Brugge | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Mechelen | 3–3 | D |
| 21 Aug | H | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Antwerp | 1–0 | W |
Kortrijk
| 7 Aug | A | vs Club Brugge | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Antwerp | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Charleroi | 1–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Anderlecht | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Waregem | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Standard Liege (Home · 4 matches) | Kortrijk (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Standard Liege's home record; away stats use Kortrijk's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.