Lommel SK vs Standard Liege — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 22 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lommel SK
28%
Draw
25%
Standard Liege
47%
Expected goals
1.27–1.54
Lommel SK · Standard Liege
Standard Liege win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–2 (11.4%), 0–1 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Standard Liege win is 1–2 (11.4%).
Lommel SK score at least twice in 36%; Standard Liege in 47%.
Scoreline distribution
Standard Liege goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 11.8 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lommel SK goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market reference | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Metis Forecast | 28% | 25% | 47% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Lommel SK
| 8 Aug | A | vs St Truiden | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Charleroi | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Westerlo | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Cercle Brugge | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Club Brugge | 0–1 | L |
Standard Liege
| 8 Aug | H | vs Cercle Brugge | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Mechelen | 3–3 | D |
| 21 Aug | H | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Antwerp | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lommel SK (Home · 5 matches) | Standard Liege (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.60 | 4.20 |
Home stats use Lommel SK's home record; away stats use Standard Liege's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.