WSG Tirol vs Grazer AK — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
WSG Tirol
38%
Draw
28%
Grazer AK
35%
Expected goals
1.46–1.33
WSG Tirol · Grazer AK
WSG Tirol win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–2 (8.7%), 0–1 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
WSG Tirol score at least twice in 42%; Grazer AK in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Grazer AK goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: WSG Tirol goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market reference | 38% | 28% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 28% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| WSG Tirol | 2.54 |
| Draw | 3.40 |
| Grazer AK | 2.76 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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WSG Tirol
| 1 Aug | H | vs Sturm Graz | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Aug | A | vs SCR Altach | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Salzburg | 0–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs A. Lustenau | 4–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Austria Vienna | 1–0 | W |
Grazer AK
| 31 Jul | A | vs LASK | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs A. Lustenau | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Rapid Vienna | 0–8 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | vs SV Ried | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Wolfsberger AC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | WSG Tirol (Home · 4 matches) | Grazer AK (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 4.40 |
Home stats use WSG Tirol's home record; away stats use Grazer AK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.