Tirol vs A. Lustenau — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Tirol
55%
Draw
23%
A. Lustenau
22%
Expected goals
1.87–1.12
Tirol · A. Lustenau
Tirol win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.6%), 2–1 (10.4%), 1–0 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Tirol win is 2–1 (10.4%).
Tirol score at least twice in 56%; A. Lustenau in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
A. Lustenau goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Tirol goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Market reference | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 23% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
A. Lustenau
| 2 Aug | H | vs SV Ried | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Grazer AK | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Wolfsberger AC | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Sturm Graz | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs WSG Tirol | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Tirol (Home · no matches) | A. Lustenau (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | — | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 4.50 |
Home stats use Tirol's home record; away stats use A. Lustenau's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.