SV Ried vs Wolfsberger AC — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
SV Ried
49%
Draw
27%
Wolfsberger AC
24%
Expected goals
1.53–1.08
SV Ried · Wolfsberger AC
SV Ried win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–0 (11.8%), 2–1 (11.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely SV Ried win is 1–0 (11.8%).
SV Ried score at least twice in 46%; Wolfsberger AC in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Wolfsberger AC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SV Ried goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 28% | 34% |
| Market reference | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Ried | 1.97 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.90 | 1.97 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.59 | 3.80 | 3.40 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.75 | 3.52 | 3.31 | 3.80 Bet365 |
| Wolfsberger AC | 4.03 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.74 | 3.65 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.74 | 3.33 | 4.03 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
SV Ried
| 2 Aug | A | vs A. Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Rapid Vienna | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs LASK | 1–4 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Grazer AK | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–3 | L |
Wolfsberger AC
| 2 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Salzburg | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs A. Lustenau | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Grazer AK | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Sept | H | vs LASK | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | SV Ried (Home · 4 matches) | Wolfsberger AC (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 2.67 |
Home stats use SV Ried's home record; away stats use Wolfsberger AC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.