SV Ried vs Wolfsberger AC — Austrian Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
SV Ried
48%
pick · result
Draw
27%
Wolfsberger AC
25%
Final score
4–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a SV Ried win 48.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a SV Ried win. Expected goals 1.51–1.11 against 4–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–0 (11.4%), 2–1 (10.7%). It finished 4–1.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
SV Ried
| 2 Aug | A | vs A. Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Rapid Vienna | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs LASK | 1–4 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Grazer AK | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–3 | L |
Wolfsberger AC
| 2 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Salzburg | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs A. Lustenau | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Grazer AK | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Sept | H | vs LASK | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | SV Ried (Home · 5 matches) | Wolfsberger AC (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 2.40 |
Home stats use SV Ried's home record; away stats use Wolfsberger AC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.