SV Ried vs Salzburg — Austrian Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
SV Ried
15%
Draw
21%
result
Salzburg
64%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 21.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Salzburg win. Expected goals 0.99–2.01 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (11.7%), 0–2 (10.5%), 0–1 (10.5%). It finished 1–1.
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SV Ried
| 2 Aug | A | vs A. Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Rapid Vienna | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs LASK | 1–4 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Grazer AK | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–3 | L |
Salzburg
| 1 Aug | H | vs Hartberg | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Wolfsberger AC | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 4–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Rapid Vienna | 5–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | SV Ried (Home · 5 matches) | Salzburg (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 2.20 |
Home stats use SV Ried's home record; away stats use Salzburg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.