SV Ried vs LASK — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
SV Ried
17%
Draw
19%
LASK
64%
Expected goals
1.14–2.16
SV Ried · LASK
LASK win 64% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (12.2%), 0–2 (9.2%), 0–1 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
SV Ried score at least twice in 31%; LASK in 66%.
Scoreline distribution
LASK goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SV Ried goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 26% | 24% | 51% |
| Market reference | 17% | 19% | 64% |
| Metis Forecast | 17% | 19% | 64% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| SV Ried | 5.48 |
| Draw | 4.86 |
| LASK | 1.50 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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SV Ried
| 2 Aug | A | vs A. Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Rapid Vienna | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs LASK | 1–4 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Grazer AK | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–3 | L |
LASK
| 29 Aug | H | vs Rheindorf Altach | 3–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | H | vs Grazer AK | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Austria Vienna | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs SV Ried | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
| 14 Aug 26 | LASKvsRied | 4 – 1 |
SV Ried: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | SV Ried (Home · 5 matches) | LASK (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 3.80 |
Home stats use SV Ried's home record; away stats use LASK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.