Sturm Graz vs SV Ried — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sturm Graz
57%
Draw
22%
SV Ried
21%
Expected goals
2.00–1.03
Sturm Graz · SV Ried
Sturm Graz win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.4%), 2–0 (9.4%), 2–1 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sturm Graz win is 2–0 (9.4%).
Sturm Graz score at least twice in 58%; SV Ried in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
SV Ried goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sturm Graz goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 66% | 20% | 13% |
| Market reference | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 57% | 22% | 21% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 1.70 |
| Draw | 4.24 |
| SV Ried | 4.35 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Sturm Graz
| 1 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs A. Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rapid Vienna | 1–3 | L |
SV Ried
| 2 Aug | A | vs A. Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Rapid Vienna | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs LASK | 1–4 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Grazer AK | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sturm Graz (Home · 4 matches) | SV Ried (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 3.75 |
Home stats use Sturm Graz's home record; away stats use SV Ried's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.