Sturm Graz arrive at this derby in a peculiar state — five consecutive draws in all competitions pointing to a side that has lost its cutting edge at a critical stage of the season. Sitting second, the pressure to win is real, yet the home data tells a cautious story. Their average of 1.0 goals scored per home game is well below the league norm, and an O2.5 rate of just 33% against a league average of 51% flags this as a ground where goals are hard to come by.

Rapid carry their own inconsistency into this fixture, with three wins from five away but a defensive record that leaks — a clean sheet rate of just 20% on the road and BTTS triggered in 67% of away games, above the league average of 56%.

The head-to-head tilts toward Rapid, who have won two of the last three meetings. This looks tighter than the table suggests, with both sides capable of cancelling each other out in a low-scoring, nervy derby.