🇦🇹 Austrian Bundesliga·Sunday, 30 August 2026·15:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid Vienna | 2.22 | 2.22 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.94 |
| Sturm Graz | 2.89 | 2.89 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketRapid Vienna
43%
Draw
24%
Sturm Graz
33%
Rapid Vienna 1.48 xGexpected goals1.37 xG Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna win 43% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11.3%).
Rapid Vienna score at least twice in 45%; Sturm Graz in 39%.
1–1 11.3%2–1 10.7%1–0 9.4%1–2 6.9%2–0 6.8%0–1 6.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Rapid Vienna goals · columns = Sturm Graz goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score58%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Over 4.5 goals16%
Rapid Vienna clean sheet26%
Sturm Graz clean sheet22%
Rapid Vienna score 2+45%
Sturm Graz score 2+39%
Rapid Vienna score 3+18%
Model vs market
| Source | Rapid Vienna | Draw | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 27% | 44% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 24% | 33% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Rapid Vienna
| 2 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs SV Ried | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Grazer AK | 8–0 | W |
Sturm Graz
| 1 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs A. Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Rapid Vienna (Home) | Sturm Graz (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.50 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Rapid Vienna's home record; away stats use Sturm Graz's away record this season.