Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz — Austrian Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Rapid Vienna
46%
pick · result
Draw
24%
Sturm Graz
30%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Rapid Vienna win 46.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Rapid Vienna win. Expected goals 1.60–1.29 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.2%), 2–1 (10.2%), 1–0 (8.9%). It finished 3–1.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Rapid Vienna
| 2 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs SV Ried | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Grazer AK | 8–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Sturm Graz | 3–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Salzburg | 1–5 | L |
Sturm Graz
| 1 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs A. Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rapid Vienna | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rapid Vienna (Home · 4 matches) | Sturm Graz (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Rapid Vienna's home record; away stats use Sturm Graz's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.