Rapid Vienna vs Austria Lustenau — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Rapid Vienna
80%
Draw
12%
Austria Lustenau
8%
Expected goals
2.51–0.85
Rapid Vienna · Austria Lustenau
Rapid Vienna win 80% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (12.7%), 2–0 (12.2%), 1–0 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Rapid Vienna score at least twice in 75%; Austria Lustenau in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
Austria Lustenau goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: Rapid Vienna goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Market reference | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| Metis Forecast | 80% | 12% | 8% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Rapid Vienna | 1.20 |
| Draw | 7.29 |
| Austria Lustenau | 10.58 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Rapid Vienna
| 2 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs SV Ried | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Grazer AK | 8–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Sturm Graz | 3–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Salzburg | 1–5 | L |
Austria Lustenau
| 13 Sept | A | vs Austria Vienna | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rapid Vienna (Home · 5 matches) | Austria Lustenau (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | — |
Home stats use Rapid Vienna's home record; away stats use Austria Lustenau's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.