Hartberg vs SV Ried — Austrian Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hartberg
32%
result
Draw
27%
SV Ried
41%
top pick
Final score
3–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Hartberg win 32.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a SV Ried win. Expected goals 1.28–1.37 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.8%), 0–1 (9.9%), 1–2 (9.8%). It finished 3–2.
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Hartberg
| 1 Aug | A | vs Salzburg | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Sturm Graz | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs SCR Altach | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs SV Ried | 3–2 | W |
SV Ried
| 2 Aug | A | vs A. Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Rapid Vienna | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs LASK | 1–4 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Grazer AK | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hartberg (Home · 4 matches) | SV Ried (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Hartberg's home record; away stats use SV Ried's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.