🇦🇹 Austrian Bundesliga·Sunday, 30 August 2026·15:00

Hartberg

LLLW

15:00

10th vs 7th

SV Ried

DLLW

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Hartberg	2.85	2.85
Draw	3.53	3.53
SV Ried	2.40	2.40

Metis Forecast

model + market

Hartberg

33%

Draw

27%

SV Ried

40%

Hartberg 1.28 xGexpected goals1.35 xG SV Ried

SV Ried win 40% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 54% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.8%).

Hartberg score at least twice in 36%; SV Ried in 40%.

1–1 12.8%0–1 10.0%1–2 9.6%0–0 7.8%1–0 7.6%2–1 7.2%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.8	10.0	6.8	2.7	0.8	0.2
1	7.6	12.8	9.6	3.9	1.2	0.3
2	6.0	7.2	5.1	2.7	0.8	0.2
3	2.8	3.4	2.0	1.0	0.4	0.1
4	1.0	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0
5+	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

rows = Hartberg goals · columns = SV Ried goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score54%

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Over 4.5 goals13%

Hartberg clean sheet26%

SV Ried clean sheet28%

Hartberg score 2+36%

SV Ried score 2+40%

Hartberg score 3+14%

Model vs market

Source	Hartberg	Draw	SV Ried
Raw Metis model	41%	28%	31%
Market (de-vigged)	33%	27%	40%
Metis Forecast	33%	27%	40%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

Hartberg

1 Aug	A	vs Salzburg	0–1	L
8 Aug	H	vs Sturm Graz	0–2	L
16 Aug	H	vs Austria Vienna	0–2	L
22 Aug	A	vs SCR Altach	2–1	W

SV Ried

2 Aug	A	vs A. Lustenau	1–1	D
9 Aug	H	vs Rapid Vienna	1–2	L
14 Aug	A	vs LASK	1–4	L
21 Aug	H	vs Grazer AK	1–0	W

Head to head

No previous meetings found.

Model context

Stat	Hartberg (Home)	SV Ried (Away)
BTTS rate	0.0%	100.0%
Over 2.5 rate	0.0%	50.0%
Clean sheet	0.0%	0.0%
Avg goals	2.00	3.50

Home stats use Hartberg's home record; away stats use SV Ried's away record this season.

Hartberg →SV Ried →🇦🇹 Austrian Bundesliga standings & fixtures