The model's read
Model vs market
How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.
| Model | Fair odds | Pinnacle | Market | Model − mkt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 19.2% | 5.21 | 5.69 | 16.3% | +2.9 |
| Draw | 22.3% | 4.49 | 4.93 | 18.8% | +3.4 |
| Away | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.43 | 64.9% | -6.3 |
| Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.96 | 1.81 | 52.2% | -1.3 |
| Under 2.5 | 49.1% | 2.04 | 1.98 | 47.8% | +1.3 |
Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.
Model favours Brazil (59%).
Match preview
Brazil enter as clear favourites against Scotland in this group-stage encounter. The model's strength ratings mark Brazil as comfortably the superior side, and that gap should shape the dynamics on the pitch. Scotland will need to be organised and disciplined to limit the space Brazil's attacking players exploit; any defensive lapses could be costly given the quality difference between the teams.
Brazil's task is more straightforward: control possession, manage the tempo, and convert the chances their superiority should generate. Scotland's best hope lies in staying compact and remaining competitive in transitions, but the model leans decisively toward Brazil's side of this fixture.
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