Group stage·24 June

The model's read

Home
19%
Draw
22%
Away
59%
ScotlandExpected goalsBrazil
0.90 xG1.89 xG
Scotland Elo
1642
Brazil Elo
1798
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS
47%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home19.2%5.215.6916.3%+2.9
Draw22.3%4.494.9318.8%+3.4
Away58.5%1.711.4364.9%-6.3
Over 2.550.9%1.961.8152.2%-1.3
Under 2.549.1%2.041.9847.8%+1.3

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model favours Brazil (59%).

Match preview

Brazil enter as clear favourites against Scotland in this group-stage encounter. The model's strength ratings mark Brazil as comfortably the superior side, and that gap should shape the dynamics on the pitch. Scotland will need to be organised and disciplined to limit the space Brazil's attacking players exploit; any defensive lapses could be costly given the quality difference between the teams.

Brazil's task is more straightforward: control possession, manage the tempo, and convert the chances their superiority should generate. Scotland's best hope lies in staying compact and remaining competitive in transitions, but the model leans decisively toward Brazil's side of this fixture.

The model's read on every match, free. Get it in your inbox.