Group stage·26 June

The model's read

Home
43%
Draw
25%
Away
32%
ParaguayExpected goalsAustralia
1.47 xG1.17 xG
Paraguay Elo
1680
Australia Elo
1638
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS
41%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home42.5%2.352.0944.9%-2.4
Draw25.4%3.943.1929.4%-4.0
Away32.1%3.113.6425.8%+6.3

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model leans Paraguay.

Match preview

Paraguay emerge as slight favourites in this group-stage encounter, with the model's strength ratings marking them as the modestly stronger outfit. The data suggests they hold a small but meaningful edge that should translate into control of the match, though Australia remain competitive enough to pose problems. Paraguay's advantage appears grounded in overall quality rather than a dominant gap between the sides.

Australia will need to be tactically disciplined to exploit whatever openings come their way. The modest strength differential implies this is a match where execution and setup matter considerably—Paraguay favoured but far from a foregone conclusion. Both teams have the capability to impose periods of pressure, making this a genuine contest rather than a one-sided affair.

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