Group stage·23 June

The model's read

Home
35%
Draw
25%
Away
39%
NorwayExpected goalsSenegal
1.26 xG1.39 xG
Norway Elo
1740
Senegal Elo
1785
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS
41%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home35.0%2.852.0944.8%-9.8
Draw25.5%3.923.5126.7%-1.2
Away39.5%2.533.2828.5%+10.9
Over 2.545.3%2.211.9448.8%-3.5
Under 2.554.7%1.831.8551.2%+3.5

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Too close to call — within a goal either way.

Match preview

Senegal enter this Group stage encounter as slight favourites, with the model's strength ratings positioning them as the modestly stronger outfit. Norway will need to be tactically disciplined and clinical in their approach to trouble a Senegal side that holds a clear structural advantage. The data points to Senegal's superiority being marginal rather than commanding, suggesting Norway have realistic opportunities if they can maintain shape and capitalize on transitions.

The model leans toward Senegal controlling the broader flow of play, though the gap between the sides remains narrow enough that Norway cannot be ruled out. A disciplined defensive setup from the Scandinavian side, coupled with efficiency in attacking moments, represents their clearest pathway to a positive result in what shapes as a competitive group match.

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