Group stage·20 June

The model's read

Home
59%
Draw
23%
Away
19%
NetherlandsExpected goalsSweden
1.83 xG0.86 xG
Netherlands Elo
1763
Sweden Elo
1589
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS
45%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home58.5%1.711.6158.0%+0.6
Draw22.8%4.404.0223.2%-0.5
Away18.7%5.344.9518.9%-0.1
Over 2.549.0%2.041.8950.0%-1.0
Under 2.551.0%1.961.8950.0%+1.0

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model favours Netherlands (59%).

Match preview

The Netherlands emerge as clear favourites in this group-stage clash, with the model's strength ratings placing them comfortably above Sweden. That gap suggests the Dutch should control possession and territory, pressing high and dictating the tempo throughout. Sweden will likely adopt a more reactive approach, looking to stay compact and exploit transitions—a familiar blueprint for sides facing superior opposition.

The model leans decisively toward Netherlands, reflecting a meaningful quality differential. If the Dutch execute their press effectively and maintain intensity, they should create the clearer openings. Sweden's path to a result depends on defensive discipline and clinical finishing from limited chances.

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