The model's read
Model vs market
How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.
| Model | Fair odds | Pinnacle | Market | Model − mkt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 19.5% | 5.13 | 5.88 | 16.4% | +3.1 |
| Draw | 23.1% | 4.32 | 4.26 | 22.6% | +0.5 |
| Away | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.58 | 61.0% | -3.6 |
| Over 2.5 | 48.4% | 2.06 | 1.89 | 51.4% | -3.0 |
| Under 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | 2.00 | 48.6% | +3.0 |
Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.
Model favours Scotland (57%).
Match preview
Scotland enter as clear favourites against Haiti in what the model reads as a significant gap in overall strength. The Scots' superior rating across the key dimensions means they should control possession and territory for large stretches, with Haiti likely forced into a reactive approach.
Haiti will need to be compact and disciplined to frustrate Scotland's attacking play, but the model's assessment suggests the gulf in quality makes that a difficult task over ninety minutes. Scotland's advantage should translate into dominant periods, though converting that superiority into decisive results will remain their primary challenge.
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