Group stage·14 June

The model's read

Home
20%
Draw
23%
Away
57%
HaitiExpected goalsScotland
0.88 xG1.79 xG
Haiti Elo
1467
Scotland Elo
1642
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS
45%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home19.5%5.135.8816.4%+3.1
Draw23.1%4.324.2622.6%+0.5
Away57.4%1.741.5861.0%-3.6
Over 2.548.4%2.061.8951.4%-3.0
Under 2.551.6%1.942.0048.6%+3.0

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model favours Scotland (57%).

Match preview

Scotland enter as clear favourites against Haiti in what the model reads as a significant gap in overall strength. The Scots' superior rating across the key dimensions means they should control possession and territory for large stretches, with Haiti likely forced into a reactive approach.

Haiti will need to be compact and disciplined to frustrate Scotland's attacking play, but the model's assessment suggests the gulf in quality makes that a difficult task over ninety minutes. Scotland's advantage should translate into dominant periods, though converting that superiority into decisive results will remain their primary challenge.

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