Group stage·21 June

The model's read

Home
69%
Draw
20%
Away
11%
EcuadorExpected goalsCuraçao
2.65 xG0.54 xG
Ecuador Elo
1758
Curaçao Elo
1382
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
30%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home69.4%1.441.1879.2%-9.8
Draw19.9%5.047.2212.9%+6.9
Away10.7%9.3411.887.9%+2.8

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model favours Ecuador (69%).

Match preview

Ecuador enter as clear favourites in this group-stage encounter, with the model's strength ratings marking them as a comfortably superior outfit. The data suggests a substantial gap between the two sides, which should shape how this tie unfolds—Ecuador will be expected to control possession and territory, pressing their advantage in quality.

Curaçao face a stern test against a team the model backs decisively. Ecuador's comfort on the strength metrics implies they have the tools to dictate play and create opportunities at will. For Curaçao, the challenge will be staying compact and organised while looking for moments on the break, though the model's read of the matchup leaves little room for optimism about their prospects.

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