The model's read
Model vs market
How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.
| Model | Fair odds | Pinnacle | Market | Model − mkt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 50.0% | 2.00 | 1.38 | 67.4% | -17.4 |
| Draw | 24.1% | 4.14 | 4.58 | 20.3% | +3.8 |
| Away | 25.9% | 3.87 | 7.60 | 12.2% | +13.6 |
| Over 2.5 | 47.5% | 2.10 | 1.84 | 51.4% | -3.9 |
| Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | 1.95 | 48.5% | +3.9 |
Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.
Model favours Belgium (50%).
Match preview
Belgium enter as clear favourites against Iran, with the model's strength ratings showing a meaningful gap between the two sides. The Belgians should control possession and territory, pressing Iran into a reactive shape throughout the match. Iran will look to stay compact defensively and exploit set pieces or transitions, but the data suggests Belgium's superior technical quality and match control will be the decisive factor here.
The model sees this as Belgium's to lose. Iran can threaten on the counter and create moments of danger, but sustaining pressure against a stronger opponent over ninety minutes presents a significant challenge. Belgium's ability to dominate play should translate into a convincing performance if they execute their approach consistently.
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