Vaduz vs Sion — Swiss Super League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Vaduz
29%
Draw
23%
Sion
48%
Expected goals
1.46–1.91
Vaduz · Sion
Sion win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.0%), 1–2 (9.6%), 2–1 (6.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 66% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sion win is 1–2 (9.6%).
Vaduz score at least twice in 43%; Sion in 57%.
Scoreline distribution
Sion goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Vaduz goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| Market reference | 29% | 23% | 48% |
| Metis Forecast | 29% | 23% | 48% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Vaduz | 3.31 |
| Draw | 4.10 |
| Sion | 1.99 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Vaduz
| 26 Jul | A | vs Lugano | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs St. Gallen | 2–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Sion | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Young Boys | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Grasshoppers | 5–2 | W |
Sion
| 26 Jul | A | vs Young Boys | 2–4 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Luzern | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Vaduz | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Lugano | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Basel | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 9 Aug 26 | SionvsVaduz | 3 – 2 |
Vaduz: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Vaduz (Home · 5 matches) | Sion (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.40 | 4.40 |
Home stats use Vaduz's home record; away stats use Sion's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.