Thun vs Servette — Swiss Super League result and pre-match forecast, Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Thun
40%
top pick
Draw
25%
Servette
35%
result
Final score
2–4
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Servette win 34.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Thun win. Expected goals 1.72–1.68 against 2–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.8%), 2–1 (9.2%), 2–2 (7.3%). It finished 2–4.
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Thun
| 25 Jul | A | vs Luzern | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Young Boys | 0–6 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Basel | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 4–3 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Lausanne | 0–0 | D |
Servette
| 25 Jul | H | vs Basel | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Zurich | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Grasshoppers | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Luzern | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Lugano | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Thun (Home · 5 matches) | Servette (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Thun's home record; away stats use Servette's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.