Thun vs Lugano — Swiss Super League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Thun
27%
Draw
22%
Lugano
51%
Expected goals
1.34–2.01
Thun · Lugano
Lugano win 51% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (9.8%), 1–2 (8.6%), 2–1 (7.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Lugano win is 1–2 (8.6%).
Thun score at least twice in 39%; Lugano in 59%.
Scoreline distribution
Lugano goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Thun goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 21% | 22% | 57% |
| Market reference | 27% | 22% | 51% |
| Metis Forecast | 27% | 22% | 51% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Thun | 3.49 |
| Draw | 4.24 |
| Lugano | 1.89 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Thun
| 25 Jul | A | vs Luzern | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Young Boys | 0–6 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Basel | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 4–3 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Lausanne | 0–0 | D |
Lugano
| 26 Jul | H | vs Vaduz | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Grasshoppers | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Zurich | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sion | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Thun (Home · 4 matches) | Lugano (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Thun's home record; away stats use Lugano's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.