Thun vs Lausanne — Swiss Super League result and pre-match forecast, Wednesday, 2 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Thun
47%
top pick
Draw
26%
result
Lausanne
26%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Thun win. Expected goals 1.95–1.38 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–1 (8.3%), 2–2 (7.2%). It finished 0–0.
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Thun
| 25 Jul | A | vs Luzern | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Young Boys | 0–6 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Basel | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 4–3 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Lausanne | 0–0 | D |
Lausanne
| 25 Jul | H | vs Grasshoppers | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Basel | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Young Boys | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Luzern | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Zurich | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Thun (Home · 5 matches) | Lausanne (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 16.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 16.7% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 1.33 |
Home stats use Thun's home record; away stats use Lausanne's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.