Thun vs Basel — Swiss Super League forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Thun
45%
Draw
24%
Basel
31%
Expected goals
1.90–1.59
Thun · Basel
Thun win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.0%), 2–1 (9.2%), 2–2 (7.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 69% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Thun win is 2–1 (9.2%).
Thun score at least twice in 57%; Basel in 47%.
Scoreline distribution
Basel goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Thun goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Market reference | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 24% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Thun | 2.13 |
| Draw | 3.97 |
| Basel | 3.07 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Thun
| 25 Jul | A | vs Luzern | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Young Boys | 0–6 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Basel | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 4–3 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Lausanne | 0–0 | D |
Basel
| 25 Jul | A | vs Servette | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Lausanne | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Thun | 4–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Zurich | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Young Boys | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
| 9 Aug 26 | BaselvsThun | 4 – 2 |
Thun: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Thun (Home · 5 matches) | Basel (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Thun's home record; away stats use Basel's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.