St. Gallen vs Thun — Swiss Super League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
St. Gallen
58%
top pick
Draw
22%
Thun
20%
result
Final score
3–4
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Thun win 20.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a St. Gallen win. Expected goals 1.94–1.23 against 3–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (12.8%), 1–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (9.2%). It finished 3–4.
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St. Gallen
| 26 Jul | H | vs Zurich | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Vaduz | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Luzern | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Thun | 3–4 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Grasshoppers | 0–2 | L |
Thun
| 25 Jul | A | vs Luzern | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Young Boys | 0–6 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Basel | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 4–3 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Lausanne | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St. Gallen (Home · 4 matches) | Thun (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.25 | 5.00 |
Home stats use St. Gallen's home record; away stats use Thun's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.