🇨🇭 Swiss Super League·Sunday, 30 August 2026·14:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| St. Gallen | 1.63 | 1.63 |
| Draw | 4.31 | 4.31 |
| Thun | 4.78 | 4.78 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketSt. Gallen
59%
Draw
22%
Thun
19%
St. Gallen 1.84 xGexpected goals1.17 xG Thun
St. Gallen win 59% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (13.9%).
St. Gallen score at least twice in 58%; Thun in 32%.
2–1 13.9%1–0 11.0%1–1 10.0%2–0 9.0%3–1 6.6%2–2 5.1%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 13.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = St. Gallen goals · columns = Thun goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score60%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Over 4.5 goals19%
St. Gallen clean sheet31%
Thun clean sheet14%
St. Gallen score 2+58%
Thun score 2+32%
St. Gallen score 3+27%
Model vs market
| Source | St. Gallen | Draw | Thun |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 26% | 39% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 59% | 22% | 19% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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St. Gallen
| 26 Jul | H | vs Zurich | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Vaduz | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Luzern | 2–2 | D |
Thun
| 25 Jul | A | vs Luzern | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Young Boys | 0–6 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Basel | 2–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | St. Gallen (Home) | Thun (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 5.00 |
Home stats use St. Gallen's home record; away stats use Thun's away record this season.