Servette vs Vaduz — Swiss Super League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Servette
52%
Draw
23%
Vaduz
25%
Expected goals
2.06–1.33
Servette · Vaduz
Servette win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.0%), 2–1 (8.7%), 2–0 (7.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Servette win is 2–1 (8.7%).
Servette score at least twice in 60%; Vaduz in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Vaduz goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Servette goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 22% | 21% |
| Market reference | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 23% | 25% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Servette | 1.85 |
| Draw | 4.12 |
| Vaduz | 3.72 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Servette
| 25 Jul | H | vs Basel | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Zurich | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Grasshoppers | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Luzern | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Lugano | 0–1 | L |
Vaduz
| 26 Jul | A | vs Lugano | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs St. Gallen | 2–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Sion | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Young Boys | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Grasshoppers | 5–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Servette (Home · 5 matches) | Vaduz (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Servette's home record; away stats use Vaduz's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.