Luzern vs Vaduz — Swiss Super League result and pre-match forecast, Wednesday, 2 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Luzern
59%
pick · result
Draw
22%
Vaduz
19%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Luzern win 58.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Luzern win. Expected goals 2.16–1.31 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (11.2%), 1–1 (9.5%), 2–0 (7.5%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Luzern
| 25 Jul | H | vs Thun | 1–3 | L |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Sion | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lausanne | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Servette | 1–1 | D |
Vaduz
| 26 Jul | A | vs Lugano | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs St. Gallen | 2–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Sion | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Young Boys | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Grasshoppers | 5–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Luzern (Home · 6 matches) | Vaduz (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.86 |
Home stats use Luzern's home record; away stats use Vaduz's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.