Lausanne vs Thun — Swiss Super League forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Lausanne
33%
Draw
24%
Thun
43%
Expected goals
1.54–1.77
Lausanne · Thun
Thun win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.8%), 1–2 (8.8%), 2–1 (7.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 66% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Thun win is 1–2 (8.8%).
Lausanne score at least twice in 45%; Thun in 53%.
Scoreline distribution
Thun goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Lausanne goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Lausanne | 2.58 |
| Draw | 3.58 |
| Thun | 2.61 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Lausanne
| 25 Jul | H | vs Grasshoppers | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Basel | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Young Boys | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Luzern | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Zurich | 2–3 | L |
Thun
| 25 Jul | A | vs Luzern | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Young Boys | 0–6 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Basel | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 4–3 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Lausanne | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 2 Sept 26 | ThunvsLausanne | 0 – 0 |
Lausanne: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Lausanne (Home · 5 matches) | Thun (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 5.17 |
Home stats use Lausanne's home record; away stats use Thun's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.