Thun arrive at St. Jakob-Park as league leaders and have been genuinely impressive on the road this season, averaging over two goals per away game while keeping clean sheets in just one quarter of those fixtures. Their away BTTS and Over 2.5 numbers both sit well above the league average, and the data suggests this is a side that plays with real attacking intent regardless of venue.

Basel's home record is patchier than their fourth-place standing implies, with just two wins in their last five at home and a goals-per-game output that lags behind the league average. The head-to-head record is a notable flag too — Basel have won just once in the last three meetings, with Thun taking two of those encounters.

With Thun's away scoring form combining with Basel's tendency to concede at home, goals look likely here. This feels like a match where the table leaders are undervalued by those expecting a tighter contest.