Basel head into this one in inconsistent form, managing just one win in their last five outings and sitting fifth in the table. The head-to-head record is a concern for the home side — they have failed to win any of the last three meetings with St. Gallen, losing twice. St. Gallen arrive in strong shape in second place, with an away record that stands out sharply: BTTS in 88% of their road trips this season against a league average of 66%, and over 2.5 goals in 71% compared to the league norm of 67%. They have kept just one clean sheet away all season, but they more than compensate by consistently finding the net.

Basel's home games have been tighter, with BTTS and over 2.5 both sitting below the league average. The data suggests St. Gallen are undervalued here, and this looks like a game with goals in it regardless of the result.