Samsunspor vs Corum — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Samsunspor
43%
top pick
Draw
29%
Corum
28%
result
Final score
1–5
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Corum win 28.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Samsunspor win. Expected goals 1.60–1.28 against 1–5 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.4%), 2–1 (9.3%), 1–0 (7.9%). It finished 1–5.
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Samsunspor
| 17 Aug | H | vs Goztepe | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Rizespor | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Fenerbahce | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kocaelispor | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Corum | 1–5 | L |
Corum
| 14 Aug | A | vs Galatasaray | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Kasimpasa | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Besiktas | 2–6 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Eyupspor | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Samsunspor | 5–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Samsunspor (Home · 5 matches) | Corum (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 4.50 |
Home stats use Samsunspor's home record; away stats use Corum's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.