Samsunspor vs Amedspor — Süper Lig forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Samsunspor
38%
Draw
28%
Amedspor
34%
Expected goals
1.34–1.25
Samsunspor · Amedspor
Samsunspor win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.6%), 1–0 (9.1%), 0–0 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Samsunspor score at least twice in 39%; Amedspor in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Amedspor goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Samsunspor goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Samsunspor | 3.46 |
| Draw | 3.74 |
| Amedspor | 2.02 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.24–1.36 → 1.34–1.25
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Samsunspor
| 17 Aug | H | vs Goztepe | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Rizespor | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Fenerbahce | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kocaelispor | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Corum | 1–5 | L |
Amedspor
| 16 Aug | H | vs Erzurumspor | 3–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Kocaelispor | 0–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Trabzonspor | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kasimpasa | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Basaksehir | 5–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Samsunspor (Home · 4 matches) | Amedspor (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.25 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Samsunspor's home record; away stats use Amedspor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.