Rizespor vs Erzurumspor — Süper Lig forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Rizespor
50%
Draw
26%
Erzurumspor
25%
Expected goals
1.69–1.15
Rizespor · Erzurumspor
Rizespor win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (9.9%), 1–0 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Rizespor win is 2–1 (9.9%).
Rizespor score at least twice in 51%; Erzurumspor in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Erzurumspor goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Rizespor goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 26% | 26% |
| Market reference | 50% | 26% | 25% |
| Metis Forecast | 50% | 26% | 25% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Rizespor | 1.94 |
| Draw | 3.65 |
| Erzurumspor | 3.82 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Rizespor
| 15 Aug | A | vs Konyaspor | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Samsunspor | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Gaziantep | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Alanyaspor | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Eyupspor | 2–0 | W |
Erzurumspor
| 16 Aug | A | vs Amedspor | 0–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Galatasaray | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Konyaspor | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Besiktas | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rizespor (Home · 4 matches) | Erzurumspor (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Rizespor's home record; away stats use Erzurumspor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.