Kayserispor arrive at this fixture in wretched form, winning just once in their last five and sitting deep in the relegation zone at 17th. Their home numbers tell a bleak story — averaging only 0.7 goals scored per game while conceding 2.1, and keeping a clean sheet just 21% of the time. Their BTTS rate of 43% at home sits well below the Süper Lig average of 55%, largely because they rarely contribute to the scoring end of the equation.

Rizespor come in with considerably more momentum, unbeaten in three of their last five away days, and their travel record is genuinely productive — 1.5 goals scored per away game and a BTTS rate of 73%, well above the league norm. They concede on the road too, which keeps games open.

The visitors look undervalued here. Rizespor's away form and attacking output against a side that can barely score at home makes this look more comfortable for the eighth-placed side than the table gap implies.