Goztepe vs Rizespor — Süper Lig forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Goztepe
41%
Draw
28%
Rizespor
31%
Expected goals
1.54–1.30
Goztepe · Rizespor
Goztepe win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.4%), 2–1 (8.5%), 1–2 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Goztepe score at least twice in 45%; Rizespor in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Rizespor goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Goztepe goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market reference | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goztepe | 2.38 | 2.35 | 2.30 | 2.41 | 2.35 | 2.30 | 2.25 | 2.31 | 2.11 | 2.41 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.37 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 3.42 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.28 | 3.17 | 3.50 Betfair SB |
| Rizespor | 3.11 | 2.80 | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.95 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.97 | 2.76 | 3.11 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Goztepe
| 17 Aug | A | vs Samsunspor | 3–3 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Genclerbirligi | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Galatasaray | 2–3 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Gaziantep | 2–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Alanyaspor | 2–2 | D |
Rizespor
| 15 Aug | A | vs Konyaspor | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Samsunspor | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Gaziantep | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Alanyaspor | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Eyupspor | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Goztepe (Home · 3 matches) | Rizespor (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Goztepe's home record; away stats use Rizespor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.