Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor — Süper Lig forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Gaziantep
43%
Draw
32%
Erzurumspor
26%
Expected goals
1.35–1.02
Gaziantep · Erzurumspor
Gaziantep win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (15.0%), 1–0 (11.3%), 0–0 (11.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Gaziantep win is 1–0 (11.3%).
Gaziantep score at least twice in 39%; Erzurumspor in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Erzurumspor goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 15.0 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Gaziantep goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 29% | 28% |
| Market reference | 43% | 32% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 32% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Gaziantep | 2.25 |
| Draw | 3.00 |
| Erzurumspor | 3.66 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Gaziantep
| 15 Aug | H | vs Alanyaspor | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eyupspor | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Rizespor | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Goztepe | 4–2 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Fenerbahce | 0–0 | D |
Erzurumspor
| 16 Aug | A | vs Amedspor | 0–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Galatasaray | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Konyaspor | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Besiktas | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gaziantep (Home · 4 matches) | Erzurumspor (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Gaziantep's home record; away stats use Erzurumspor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.