🇹🇷 Süper Lig·Saturday, 29 August 2026·18:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Draw | 5.83 | 5.83 |
| Goztepe | 10.54 | 10.54 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketGalatasaray
76%
Draw
16%
Goztepe
8%
Galatasaray 2.44 xGexpected goals0.76 xG Goztepe
Galatasaray win 76% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (12.6%).
Galatasaray score at least twice in 71%; Goztepe in 17%.
2–0 12.6%2–1 10.2%1–0 10.1%3–0 9.8%3–1 7.9%1–1 7.4%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.6 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Galatasaray goals · columns = Goztepe goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score50%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Over 4.5 goals22%
Galatasaray clean sheet47%
Goztepe clean sheet8%
Galatasaray score 2+71%
Goztepe score 2+17%
Galatasaray score 3+44%
Model vs market
| Source | Galatasaray | Draw | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 77% | 18% | 4% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| Metis Forecast | 76% | 16% | 8% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Galatasaray
| 8 Aug | A | vs Gaziantep | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Fatih Karagumruk | 3–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Kayserispor | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Rizespor | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Eyupspor | 2–0 | W |
Goztepe
| 10 Aug | A | vs Rizespor | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Fenerbahce | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Fatih Karagumruk | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Konyaspor | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Kayserispor | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 8 Apr 26 | GoztepvsGalatasaray | 1 – 3 |
| 26 Oct 25 | GalatasarayvsGoztep | 3 – 1 |
Galatasaray: 2W 0D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Galatasaray (Home) | Goztepe (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.7% | 41.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 76.5% | 35.3% |
| Clean sheet | 35.3% | 41.2% |
| Avg goals | 3.53 | 2.12 |
Home stats use Galatasaray's home record; away stats use Goztepe's away record this season.