Galatasaray vs Amedspor — Süper Lig forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Galatasaray
68%
Draw
18%
Amedspor
14%
Expected goals
2.47–0.94
Galatasaray · Amedspor
Galatasaray win 68% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (9.7%), 3–0 (8.4%), 1–1 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Galatasaray score at least twice in 69%; Amedspor in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Amedspor goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Galatasaray goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 81% | 16% | 3% |
| Market reference | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| Metis Forecast | 68% | 18% | 14% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 1.43 |
| Draw | 5.10 |
| Amedspor | 6.37 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Galatasaray
| 14 Aug | H | vs Corum | 2–2 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Erzurumspor | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Goztepe | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Basaksehir | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Kocaelispor | 1–0 | W |
Amedspor
| 16 Aug | H | vs Erzurumspor | 3–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Kocaelispor | 0–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Trabzonspor | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kasimpasa | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Basaksehir | 5–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Galatasaray (Home · 5 matches) | Amedspor (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.40 | 3.25 |
Home stats use Galatasaray's home record; away stats use Amedspor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.